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| 7 | <text x="60" y="56" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" letter-spacing="3">PART VI · THE BUBBLE · 19</text> |
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| 9 | <text x="60" y="120" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="28" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">四大风险，<tspan fill="#E63946">互相放大</tspan></text> |
| 10 | <text x="60" y="152" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="14" font-style="italic" fill="#8A857E">The four risk vectors that compound each other in 2026 AI capital</text> |
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| 18 | <g id="q1-capex-gap"> |
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| 22 | <text x="100" y="234" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#E63946" letter-spacing="3">RISK 01</text> |
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| 31 | |
| 32 | <text x="100" y="278" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">Capex / Revenue 鸿沟</text> |
| 33 | <text x="100" y="302" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">Capex outruns commercial revenue</text> |
| 34 | |
| 35 | <text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="100" y="344"><tspan>• 增速差 <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">+46pt</tspan></tspan> |
| 36 | </text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="100" y="366">• 2001 电信泡沫期为 32pt</text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="100" y="388"><tspan>• <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">差距已超 2001 泡沫</tspan></tspan> |
| 37 | </text></g> |
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| 43 | <text x="660" y="234" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#E63946" letter-spacing="3">RISK 02</text> |
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| 51 | <text x="660" y="278" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">企业 ROI 难落地</text> |
| 52 | <text x="660" y="302" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">Enterprise ROI lags badly behind capex</text> |
| 53 | |
| 54 | <text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="660" y="344"><tspan>• MIT: <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">95%</tspan> AI 试点未产生商业价值</tspan> |
| 55 | </text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="660" y="366"><tspan>• 仅 <tspan fill="#E63946" font-weight="bold">5%</tspan> 企业 EBIT 受 AI 显著影响</tspan> |
| 56 | </text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="660" y="388">• 投资在赌"未来兑现"</text></g> |
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| 62 | <text x="100" y="454" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#F4A261" letter-spacing="3">RISK 03</text> |
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| 70 | <text x="100" y="498" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">客户集中度风险</text> |
| 71 | <text x="100" y="522" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">Six customers carry the whole supply chain</text> |
| 72 | |
| 73 | <text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="100" y="564"><tspan>• Nvidia 收入 <tspan fill="#F4A261" font-weight="bold">85% 来自 6 家</tspan></tspan> |
| 74 | </text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="100" y="586">• 前 4 名占近 60%</text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="100" y="608">• 任一砍 capex → 级联冲击</text></g> |
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| 78 | <rect x="640" y="420" width="560" height="4" fill="#F4A261" /> |
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| 80 | <text x="660" y="454" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#F4A261" letter-spacing="3">RISK 04</text> |
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| 83 | <path d="M3 9a2 2 0 0 1 2 -2h14a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v9a2 2 0 0 1 -2 2h-14a2 2 0 0 1 -2 -2l0 -9" /> |
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| 89 | <text x="660" y="498" font-family="Cambria, "Microsoft YaHei", serif" font-size="22" font-weight="bold" fill="#E8E6E1">融资结构转向负债</text> |
| 90 | <text x="660" y="522" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="11" fill="#8A857E" font-style="italic">From operating cash flow to debt</text> |
| 91 | |
| 92 | <text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="660" y="564"><tspan>• 现金流融资 → <tspan fill="#F4A261" font-weight="bold">举债融资</tspan></tspan> |
| 93 | </text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="660" y="586">• 自由现金流开始转负</text><text font-size="14" fill="#C9C5BE" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" x="660" y="608">• 兑现时间表的耐心被压缩</text></g> |
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| 97 | <text x="640" y="427" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="14" font-weight="bold" fill="#E63946">×</text> |
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| 102 | <text x="60" y="700" font-family=""Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif" font-size="10" fill="#5C5852">Sources: MIT GenAI Pilot Study · Allianz · Seeking Alpha · Goldman Sachs 2026 outlook</text> |
| 103 | <text x="1220" y="700" text-anchor="end" font-family="Cambria, serif" font-size="10" fill="#5C5852">19 / 20</text> |
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