| 1 | <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 1280 720" width="1280" height="720"> |
| 2 | <!-- P05 Frontier Training Cost — banner image (#14) + line_chart (log scale), dense rhythm --> |
| 3 | |
| 4 | <defs> |
| 5 | <clipPath id="bannerClip"> |
| 6 | <rect x="48" y="170" width="1184" height="184"/> |
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| 9 | |
| 10 | <rect id="bg" width="1280" height="720" fill="#FFFFFF"/> |
| 11 | |
| 12 | <!-- ============ HEADER ============ --> |
| 13 | <g id="bg-masthead-rule"> |
| 14 | <rect x="0" y="0" width="1280" height="4" fill="#C8102E"/> |
| 15 | </g> |
| 16 | |
| 17 | <g id="header-folio"> |
| 18 | <line x1="48" y1="34" x2="1232" y2="34" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1"/> |
| 19 | <text x="48" y="26" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="2">THE AI INDUSTRY 2026 · ANNUAL REPORT</text> |
| 20 | <text x="640" y="26" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle" letter-spacing="2">STORY II · FRONTIER COMPUTE</text> |
| 21 | <text x="1232" y="26" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end" letter-spacing="2">VOL. 1 · NO. 1 · MAY 2026</text> |
| 22 | </g> |
| 23 | |
| 24 | <g id="header"> |
| 25 | <text x="48" y="58" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#C8102E" letter-spacing="3.5">SECTION III · STORY II</text> |
| 26 | <text x="48" y="110" font-family="Impact, "Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="44" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="-1">PAST THE HALF-BILLION LINE</text> |
| 27 | <text x="48" y="138" font-family=""Times New Roman", SimSun, serif" font-size="16" font-style="italic" fill="#111111">Frontier 2026 runs land between <tspan fill="#C8102E" font-weight="700">1 e26</tspan> and <tspan fill="#C8102E" font-weight="700">1 e27 FLOPs</tspan>. Late-2027 projection: <tspan fill="#C8102E" font-weight="700">$1–3 B</tspan> per run.</text> |
| 28 | <line x1="48" y1="156" x2="1232" y2="156" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="2"/> |
| 29 | </g> |
| 30 | |
| 31 | <!-- ============ BANNER IMAGE (mid-section, #14) ============ --> |
| 32 | <g id="banner-image"> |
| 33 | <image href="../images/p05_training_cost.png" x="48" y="170" width="1184" height="184" clip-path="url(#bannerClip)" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid slice"/> |
| 34 | <rect x="48" y="170" width="1184" height="184" fill="none" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1"/> |
| 35 | </g> |
| 36 | |
| 37 | <g id="banner-caption"> |
| 38 | <text x="48" y="376" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="2">FIG. 02 · A FRONTIER SERVER HALL</text> |
| 39 | <text x="1232" y="376" font-family=""Times New Roman", SimSun, serif" font-size="11" font-style="italic" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">— power and grid interconnect, not chips, are the binding constraint for the late-2027 cohort.</text> |
| 40 | <line x1="48" y1="384" x2="1232" y2="384" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="0.5"/> |
| 41 | </g> |
| 42 | |
| 43 | <!-- ============ LINE CHART (training cost trajectory, log scale) ============ --> |
| 44 | <g id="chart-title"> |
| 45 | <text x="48" y="406" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="13" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="1.5">FIG. 03 · TRAINING COST PER FRONTIER RUN · USD MILLIONS · LOG SCALE</text> |
| 46 | </g> |
| 47 | |
| 48 | <g id="chartArea"> |
| 49 | <!-- Y-axis gridlines (log scale): $50 / $100 / $200 / $500 / $1000 / $3000 (in M) --> |
| 50 | <line x1="140" y1="580" x2="1140" y2="580" stroke="#3A3A3A" stroke-width="0.5" stroke-dasharray="2,3"/> |
| 51 | <line x1="140" y1="556" x2="1140" y2="556" stroke="#3A3A3A" stroke-width="0.5" stroke-dasharray="2,3"/> |
| 52 | <line x1="140" y1="532" x2="1140" y2="532" stroke="#3A3A3A" stroke-width="0.5" stroke-dasharray="2,3"/> |
| 53 | <line x1="140" y1="500" x2="1140" y2="500" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1"/> |
| 54 | <line x1="140" y1="476" x2="1140" y2="476" stroke="#3A3A3A" stroke-width="0.5" stroke-dasharray="2,3"/> |
| 55 | <line x1="140" y1="438" x2="1140" y2="438" stroke="#3A3A3A" stroke-width="0.5" stroke-dasharray="2,3"/> |
| 56 | |
| 57 | <!-- The $500M reference line emphasized as the "half-billion line" --> |
| 58 | <text x="1148" y="503" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="10" font-weight="900" fill="#C8102E" letter-spacing="1">$500 M LINE</text> |
| 59 | |
| 60 | <!-- Y-axis labels (left, mono) --> |
| 61 | <text x="130" y="584" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">$50 M</text> |
| 62 | <text x="130" y="560" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">$100 M</text> |
| 63 | <text x="130" y="536" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">$200 M</text> |
| 64 | <text x="130" y="504" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" font-weight="700" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="end">$500 M</text> |
| 65 | <text x="130" y="480" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">$1 B</text> |
| 66 | <text x="130" y="442" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">$3 B</text> |
| 67 | |
| 68 | <!-- Y-axis baseline --> |
| 69 | <line x1="140" y1="420" x2="140" y2="580" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1"/> |
| 70 | <!-- X-axis baseline --> |
| 71 | <line x1="140" y1="580" x2="1140" y2="580" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1.5"/> |
| 72 | |
| 73 | <!-- chart-plot-area: 140,420,1140,580 --> |
| 74 | |
| 75 | <!-- Data line (solid through 4 actuals, dashed through projection) --> |
| 76 | <!-- Points: GPT-4 (140,565), Llama (390,537), Gemini (640,533), 2026 Frontier (890,512), 2027 Projected (1140,452) --> |
| 77 | <polyline points="140,565 390,537 640,533 890,512" fill="none" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="square" stroke-linejoin="miter"/> |
| 78 | <line x1="890" y1="512" x2="1140" y2="452" stroke="#C8102E" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-dasharray="6,4" stroke-linecap="square"/> |
| 79 | |
| 80 | <!-- Range bars for 2026 Frontier ($200M-$500M) and 2027 Projected ($1B-$3B) --> |
| 81 | <!-- 2026: low $200M → y=532, high $500M → y=500 --> |
| 82 | <line x1="890" y1="500" x2="890" y2="532" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="6"/> |
| 83 | <line x1="882" y1="500" x2="898" y2="500" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="2"/> |
| 84 | <line x1="882" y1="532" x2="898" y2="532" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="2"/> |
| 85 | |
| 86 | <!-- 2027: low $1B → y=476, high $3B → y=438 --> |
| 87 | <line x1="1140" y1="438" x2="1140" y2="476" stroke="#C8102E" stroke-width="6"/> |
| 88 | <line x1="1132" y1="438" x2="1148" y2="438" stroke="#C8102E" stroke-width="2"/> |
| 89 | <line x1="1132" y1="476" x2="1148" y2="476" stroke="#C8102E" stroke-width="2"/> |
| 90 | |
| 91 | <!-- Data dots --> |
| 92 | <circle cx="140" cy="565" r="7" fill="#111111"/> |
| 93 | <circle cx="390" cy="537" r="7" fill="#111111"/> |
| 94 | <circle cx="640" cy="533" r="7" fill="#111111"/> |
| 95 | |
| 96 | <!-- Data dot labels (top of dot, $ value) --> |
| 97 | <text x="140" y="552" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">$78 M</text> |
| 98 | <text x="390" y="524" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">$170 M</text> |
| 99 | <text x="640" y="520" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">$191 M</text> |
| 100 | <text x="890" y="487" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">$200 – 500 M</text> |
| 101 | <text x="1140" y="425" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="middle">$1 – 3 B</text> |
| 102 | |
| 103 | <!-- X-axis category labels (bottom) --> |
| 104 | <text x="140" y="600" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">GPT-4</text> |
| 105 | <text x="140" y="614" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">MAR 2023</text> |
| 106 | <text x="390" y="600" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">LLAMA 3.1 405B</text> |
| 107 | <text x="390" y="614" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">JUL 2024</text> |
| 108 | <text x="640" y="600" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">GEMINI ULTRA</text> |
| 109 | <text x="640" y="614" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">DEC 2024</text> |
| 110 | <text x="890" y="600" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle">2026 FRONTIER</text> |
| 111 | <text x="890" y="614" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">1e26 – 1e27 FLOPS</text> |
| 112 | <text x="1140" y="600" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="middle">2027 PROJECTED</text> |
| 113 | <text x="1140" y="614" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="middle">DASHED · ESTIMATE</text> |
| 114 | </g> |
| 115 | |
| 116 | <!-- ============ ANNOTATION ROW ============ --> |
| 117 | <line x1="48" y1="630" x2="1232" y2="630" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="2"/> |
| 118 | <g id="annotation"> |
| 119 | <text x="48" y="650" font-family=""Arial Black", SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="1.5">WHAT THE LINE MEANS —</text> |
| 120 | <text x="240" y="650" font-family=""Times New Roman", SimSun, serif" font-size="13" fill="#111111">a single training run for a 2026 frontier model now exceeds the lifetime engineering budget of most enterprise software products.</text> |
| 121 | <text x="48" y="670" font-family=""Times New Roman", SimSun, serif" font-size="13" fill="#111111">Capital is no longer the gating factor; <tspan font-weight="700">grid interconnect</tspan> and <tspan font-weight="700">multi-gigawatt power siting</tspan> are. The next cohort is being built around substations, not around chips.</text> |
| 122 | </g> |
| 123 | |
| 124 | <!-- ============ FOOTER ============ --> |
| 125 | <g id="footer-imprint"> |
| 126 | <rect x="48" y="688" width="1184" height="2" fill="#C8102E"/> |
| 127 | <text x="48" y="708" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="2">SOURCE EPOCH AI · DELUAIR CONSULTANCY 2026 · LOG-SCALE PLOT · COMPUTE-ONLY COST · POWER & SITE EXCLUDED</text> |
| 128 | <text x="1232" y="708" font-family="Consolas, "Courier New", monospace" font-size="9" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end" letter-spacing="2">PAGE 05 / 10</text> |
| 129 | </g> |
| 130 | </svg> |
| 131 |