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04_arpu_divide.svg
1 <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 1280 720" width="1280" height="720">
2 <!-- P04 The ARPU Divide — dumbbell with normalized MAU vs ARPU, dense rhythm -->
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6 <!-- ============ HEADER ============ -->
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11 <g id="header-folio">
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13 <text x="48" y="26" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="2">THE AI INDUSTRY 2026 · ANNUAL REPORT</text>
14 <text x="640" y="26" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" text-anchor="middle" letter-spacing="2">STORY I · SIDEBAR</text>
15 <text x="1232" y="26" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end" letter-spacing="2">VOL. 1 · NO. 1 · MAY 2026</text>
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18 <g id="header">
19 <text x="48" y="58" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#C8102E" letter-spacing="3.5">SECTION II · SIDEBAR</text>
20 <text x="48" y="110" font-family="Impact, &quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="44" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="-1">THE ARPU DIVIDE</text>
21 <text x="48" y="138" font-family="&quot;Times New Roman&quot;, SimSun, serif" font-size="16" font-style="italic" fill="#111111">Scale ≠ monetisation. Anthropic earns <tspan fill="#C8102E" font-weight="700">7.4×</tspan> per user vs. OpenAI, <tspan fill="#C8102E" font-weight="700">162×</tspan> vs. Meta.</text>
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24
25 <!-- ============ LEGEND ============ -->
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27 <circle cx="60" cy="184" r="6" fill="#111111"/>
28 <text x="74" y="188" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="1">MAU</text>
29 <text x="112" y="188" font-family="&quot;Times New Roman&quot;, SimSun, serif" font-size="11" font-style="italic" fill="#3A3A3A">% of largest (Meta ~1 B)</text>
30 <circle cx="320" cy="184" r="6" fill="#C8102E"/>
31 <text x="334" y="188" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="11" font-weight="900" fill="#C8102E" letter-spacing="1">ARPU</text>
32 <text x="380" y="188" font-family="&quot;Times New Roman&quot;, SimSun, serif" font-size="11" font-style="italic" fill="#3A3A3A">% of highest (Anthropic $16.20 /mo)</text>
33 <text x="1232" y="188" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="9" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end" letter-spacing="1">ROWS RANKED BY ARPU DESCENDING</text>
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35
36 <!-- ============ DUMBBELL CHART AREA ============ -->
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38 <!-- X-axis grid (0, 25, 50, 75, 100%) at x = 200, 450, 700, 950, 1200 -->
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50 <text x="200" y="572" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">0 %</text>
51 <text x="450" y="572" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">25 %</text>
52 <text x="700" y="572" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">50 %</text>
53 <text x="950" y="572" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">75 %</text>
54 <text x="1200" y="572" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="middle">100 %</text>
55
56 <!-- Scale: 1000px = 100%, 10px per percent, x = 200 + pct * 10 -->
57
58 <!-- Row 1: Anthropic — ARPU 100% (x=1200), MAU 13.4% (x=334) -->
59 <g id="row-anthropic">
60 <text x="190" y="248" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="13" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end">ANTHROPIC</text>
61 <line x1="334" y1="244" x2="1200" y2="244" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1.5"/>
62 <circle cx="334" cy="244" r="8" fill="#111111"/>
63 <circle cx="1200" cy="244" r="8" fill="#C8102E"/>
64 <text x="318" y="232" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">134 M</text>
65 <text x="1188" y="232" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="end">$16.20</text>
66 </g>
67
68 <!-- Row 2: Microsoft — ARPU 30.9% (x=509), MAU N/A -->
69 <g id="row-microsoft">
70 <text x="190" y="312" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="13" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end">MICROSOFT</text>
71 <circle cx="509" cy="308" r="8" fill="#C8102E"/>
72 <text x="497" y="296" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="end">$5.00</text>
73 <text x="525" y="312" font-family="&quot;Times New Roman&quot;, SimSun, serif" font-size="11" font-style="italic" fill="#3A3A3A">MAU not reported</text>
74 </g>
75
76 <!-- Row 3: OpenAI — ARPU 13.6% (x=336), MAU 90% (x=1100) -->
77 <g id="row-openai">
78 <text x="190" y="376" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="13" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end">OPENAI</text>
79 <line x1="336" y1="372" x2="1100" y2="372" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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82 <text x="320" y="360" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="end">$2.20</text>
83 <text x="1088" y="360" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">900 M</text>
84 </g>
85
86 <!-- Row 4: Google — ARPU 6.8% (x=268), MAU N/A -->
87 <g id="row-google">
88 <text x="190" y="440" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="13" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end">GOOGLE</text>
89 <circle cx="268" cy="436" r="8" fill="#C8102E"/>
90 <text x="256" y="424" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#C8102E" text-anchor="end">$1.10</text>
91 <text x="284" y="440" font-family="&quot;Times New Roman&quot;, SimSun, serif" font-size="11" font-style="italic" fill="#3A3A3A">MAU not reported</text>
92 </g>
93
94 <!-- Row 5: Meta — ARPU 0.6% (x=206), MAU 100% (x=1200) -->
95 <g id="row-meta">
96 <text x="190" y="504" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="13" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end">META</text>
97 <line x1="206" y1="500" x2="1200" y2="500" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="1.5"/>
98 <circle cx="1200" cy="500" r="8" fill="#111111"/>
99 <circle cx="206" cy="500" r="8" fill="#C8102E"/>
100 <text x="226" y="488" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" font-weight="700" fill="#C8102E">$0.10</text>
101 <text x="1188" y="488" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="10" fill="#3A3A3A" text-anchor="end">~1,000 M</text>
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103 </g>
104
105 <!-- ============ READING THE TABLE — short caption ============ -->
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108 <text x="48" y="634" font-family="&quot;Arial Black&quot;, SimHei, sans-serif" font-size="14" font-weight="900" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="1.5">READING THE TABLE</text>
109 <line x1="240" y1="624" x2="1232" y2="624" stroke="#111111" stroke-width="0.5"/>
110 <text x="48" y="660" font-family="&quot;Times New Roman&quot;, SimSun, serif" font-size="13" fill="#111111">The rank-flip at Anthropic and Meta is the headline: Anthropic monetises a 134 M user base 162 times harder than Meta monetises a billion.</text>
111 <text x="48" y="678" font-family="&quot;Times New Roman&quot;, SimSun, serif" font-size="13" fill="#111111">Enterprise-API and coding workloads — Anthropic's load-bearing demand — compound faster on per-user terms than free-tier consumer scale ever has.</text>
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117 <text x="48" y="708" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="9" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" letter-spacing="2">SOURCE COUNTERPOINT RESEARCH Q1 2026 · THE REGISTER 2026-04-30 · NORMALISATION: MAU PCT OF META; ARPU PCT OF ANTHROPIC</text>
118 <text x="1232" y="708" font-family="Consolas, &quot;Courier New&quot;, monospace" font-size="9" font-weight="700" fill="#111111" text-anchor="end" letter-spacing="2">PAGE 04 / 10</text>
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