| 1 | To close, eight observations to carry forward. What changed: revenue leadership decoupled from user count, training cost crossed the half-billion line, inference became a four point six times discriminator inside the frontier class, and benchmark half-life collapsed from years to months. What did not change: the frontier cohort is still roughly five labs, China frontier labs still have zero EU-market revenue, open-weights distribution still does not translate to direct revenue capture, and power and grid interconnect remain the single hardest input to source. The test of the next twelve months is whether a second wave of labs can land the half-billion-dollar runs without breaking the three-rulebook trade barrier. That is the question this report leaves open. Thank you for reading. |